Knowing the Unknowable: The Hit and Run

Mike Fast is like the first guy who ever told you what a hot dog is actually made out of. Instead of letting you live in your own little bubble, happily assuming that everything you’ve ever heard about was correct, Fast takes advantage of all the little PITCHfx and Gameday data that we now have at our fingertips and can quantify our deepest held beliefs. One can only be terrified of the possibilities should his attention shift from the not-so-serious world of baseball and instead focused on The Cosmos and Other Big Questions.

This time, Fast has turned his attention to the Hit and Run, a previously unknowable entity as, outside of stolen bases, we had no idea if a runner was going with the pitch before 2003. It is well worth your time to read the whole article as he breaks down the differences in results based on lineup position, game score, outs, etc etc etc. However, in the end it turns out that Earl Weaver was wrong, the hit and run, if used correctly, is not a demon like the little baby in Insidious.

“The hit-and-run is far from the worst play in baseball. For a small-ball tactic, it has been quite successful over the past nine seasons, increasing scoring by .06 runs per attempt on average. The value of the hole in the infield defense is real, adding about 27 points to the batting average of the hitter. The double plays avoided by executing the hit-and-run offset the runners caught stealing on the play, and the extra bases gained by the runner when the ball is put in play are enough to move the play into the plus column overall.”

I’m just glad someone else had to do all the math to figure this out. Go read it in full.