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When Is It Too Early to Start Talking About a No-Hitter?

Last night the internet came alive when Philip Humber went six and a third no-hit innings before surrendering the first hit of the evening to Alex Rodriguez. While the fact that the 28 year-old Humber, owner of five previous career starts, was doing it against America’s biggest team certainly helped his viral case, it did bring up the question of when is it too early to start talking about no-nos.

While we can all agree that Buster Olney’s (I’m assuming sarcastic) third inning alert from the other day is far too early, it seems to make logical sense to perk up in the seventh inning. After all, that represents the final third of the game. While I certainly understand the desire to spread word of history in the making, getting 18 hitless outs just isn’t all that uncommon. Already Chris Tillman and Ivan Nova, neither of them on bookmakers lists for most likely to join baseball’s immortal elite, have gone six no-hit innings this season.  In fact, a pitcher who makes it to the ninth inning still only stands a 50/50 shot of completing the no-hitter as cataloged by Stew Thorley.

As a society, I would like to come to some kind of understanding? I think a good rule of thumb is the beginning of the eighth inning, with six solid outs to go. As we just discussed the seventh is too early, the fans haven’t even stretched yet and alerting people in the ninth is too late—by the time they fire up MLB.tv it could already be over.

I tried to find an out-by-out look at a pitchers chance at completing a no-hitter and couldn’t find one, so until science gives us an answer, I ask you, dear reader. When do you sound the alarm? Do you start calling people as soon as the pitcher has gone through the lineup one full time or do you wait until the very last possible moment?

  1. mydogisnamedindy answered: If it’s your team and your pitcher you NEVER talk about the no-no. NEVER.
  2. sophiamaria answered: 5th inning, without fail.
  3. ajroxmywhitesox answered: It depends on the pitcher. If it’s someone with only a handful of starts like Humber, maybe the fifth. Otherwise probably the eighth.
  4. sweetcosmos reblogged this from oldtimefamilybaseball
  5. thesistatement answered: I’m a first inning kind of guy. You throw an inning of three up, three down, you deserve to have the no-no talked about.
  6. complicatedshoes answered: If you’re on last nights ESPN crew, the answer is 5th inning. It was really pathetic.
  7. rweinhold answered: I start paying attention right away, 4th inning or so. I wouldn’t start calling people or worrying about it until the 7th.
  8. idontgetrunnershigh answered: i think some place around 8 is realistic. 8 1/3 maybe
  9. oldtimefamilybaseball posted this
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